Kidney Week

Abstract: SA-PO787

Predictors of CKD in the EXTEND45 Study: An Australian Population-Based Study

Session Information

• CKD: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, Prevention - III
  October 27, 2018 | Location: Exhibit Hall, San Diego Convention Center
  Abstract Time: 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Category: CKD (Non-Dialysis)

• 1901 CKD (Non-Dialysis): Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Prevention

Authors

• Kang, Amy, The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Newtown, New South Wales, Australia

Amy Kang,

• Sukkar, Louisa, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Louisa Sukkar,

• Jun, Min, The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Newtown, New South Wales, Australia

Min Jun,

• Foote, Celine, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Celine Foote,

• Pecoits-Filho, Roberto, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Parana, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

Roberto Pecoits-Filho,

• Neuen, Brendon Lange, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Brendon Lange Neuen,

• Scaria, Anish, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Anish Scaria,

• Baker, Jannah Firdausa, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Jannah Firdausa Baker,

• Rogers, Kris, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Kris Rogers,

• Cass, Alan, Menzies School of Health Research, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia

Alan Cass,

• Pollock, Carol A., The University of Sydney, St. Leonards, New South Wales, Australia

Carol A. Pollock,

• Wong, Germaine, The University of Sydney, St. Leonards, New South Wales, Australia

Germaine Wong,

• Knight, John, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

John Knight,

• Peiris, David, The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

David Peiris,

• Gallagher, Martin P., The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Newtown, New South Wales, Australia

Martin P. Gallagher,

• Jardine, Meg J., The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Newtown, New South Wales, Australia

Meg J. Jardine,

Background

The AUSDIAB study found an incidence rate of CKD (eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m²) of 0.4 per 100 person-years in the adult Australian community aged ≥25 years. We aimed to assess: 1) the incidence and prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), 2) risk factors for incident CKD in a contemporary Australian population-based cohort of adults aged 45 and older.

Methods

Based on data from the EXTEND45 study (the 45 and Up Study linked to [1]hospital and community pathology datasets by the Centre for Health Record Linkage[CHeReL] and [2]the Medicare Benefits Schedule[MBS] and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme[PBS] datasets provided by the Department of Human Services), we identified a population-based cohort (2006-2014) of 41,099 people aged ≥45 years who had ≥2 measures of kidney function. Prevalent CKD (defined as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m²) was determined at study recruitment. The CKD incidence rate over the study period was determined using Poisson regression. Cox regression was used to determine associations between baseline sociodemographic factors, comorbidities and future incident CKD.

Results

Of 41,099 participants, 7,641(18.6%) had prevalent CKD and 5,481 developed incident CKD over a mean follow-up of 5.6 years. The incidence rate of CKD was 3.2(95% CI:3.1-3.3) per 100 person-years. Baseline characteristics: age (per year increase; HR: 1.08[1.07-1.08]), regional residence (inner regional vs city: 1.26[1.18-1.36]), diabetes (1.28[1.19-1.38]), hypertension (1.58[1.48-1.70]), heart disease (1.22[1.14-1.31]), stroke (1.16[1.03-1.29]), depression (1.25[1.15-1.35]) and higher BMI (obese vs normal: 1.38[1.27-1.49]) were predictive of incident CKD. Alcohol consumption (7-13 vs 0-6 drinks/week 0.89[0.82-0.97]) was associated with a lower risk of incident CKD.

Conclusion

Baseline depression and regional residence predicted future incident CKD in conjunction with established risk factors of age, diabetes, hypertension, high BMI and vascular disease.

Funding

• Commercial Support – The EXTEND45 Study is funded through peer-reviewed (NSW Cardiovascular Research Network Collaborative Project Grant) and unrestricted industry (from MSD, Amgen and Eli Lilly) research grants.